Editorial

"Zen teaches nothing; it merely enables us to wake up and become aware. It does not teach, it points." ~D.T. Suzuki
Showing posts with label Punctuated-Equilibria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Punctuated-Equilibria. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

A Gould-en Heart

Remembering
Stephen Jay Gould
September 10 1941 - May 20 2002
Years ago (circa 1989) Dr. Gould was invited to speak in the William Osler Series of talks at McGill University. I was just starting out as an undergrad at Concordia U at the time. Having read Ever Since Darwin, as well as having read his other books, I was also a subscriber to Natural History magazine just for his articles, so I was eager to hear him lecture in person. The lecture was amazing, yet, my girlfriend at the time and I along with some classmates, watched in shock as one woman stood up in the middle of the lecture and pointing a finger, started ranting and berating Gould (“Show me a tenth of eye Stephen Jay Gould… blah, blah, blah). Gould never lost his cool and simply but politely reminded the woman that everyone had come to hear HIM talk and not HER… So would she please SIT DOWN. She kept on going and security eventually escorted her out and his talk continued. But not without a good laugh.

After the lecture, Dr. Gould hung out at the podium taking questions and what not, from a group of people gathered around him. My girlfriend knowing how keen I was, asked why I didn’t go down and join the group. She said, “This is a great chance for you to go and shake his hand.” In my youth I guess (I don’t know, I just didn’t like the groupie scene. It really turned me off.), I insisted “No thanks. I don’t want to shake his hand as just another 'fan'. I’d rather finish my studies and earn his handshake as a colleague.”

We left soon after that and I kicked myself all the way home. For years I struggled with the feeling that I was too proud and stubborn for missing an opportunity to let him know his work was appreciated.

Forward a few years later (circa 1993) and I was a graduate student. As fate would have it, this time Dr. Gould was invited to lecture by Concordia. After the lecture, The Biology Graduate Association (of which I was Co-treasurer) had invited him to a wine and cheese at our building across the street. Of course there were neo-Darwinists, Modern Synth and Dawkins fans in our dept. So you can imagine it was an amusing evening with much great discussion. At some point Dr. Gould and I got to talking alone and eventually I told him about the McGill lecture years before and the conversation I had with my girlfriend . Well, he slowly gave me a big smile and said “Peter, after talking with you tonight, I consider you a colleague...Put'er there..” He extended his hand, took mine and shook it vigorously. . .

I can't put into words what that meant to me.

And.. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't on the verge of tears... I believe he was a man to be admired as much for his generosity and heart as for his mind and his work.

My cherished souvenirs of that night we first met, was a signed copy of Wonderful Life, our conversation...
but most of all was that handshake and his calling me a colleague. A Gould-en heart.

Stephen Jay Gould (September 10, 1941 – May 20, 2002) was an American paleontologist, evolutionary biologist, and historian of science. He was also one of the most influential and widely read writers of popular science of his generation. Gould spent most of his career teaching at Harvard University and working at the American Museum of Natural History in New York. In the later years of his life, Gould also taught biology and evolution at New York University.

Gould's most significant contribution to evolutionary biology was the theory of punctuated equilibrium, which he developed with Niles Eldredge in 1972.The theory proposes that most evolution is marked by long periods of evolutionary stability, which is punctuated by rare instances of branching evolution. The theory was contrasted against phyletic gradualism, the popular idea that evolutionary change is marked by a pattern of smooth and continuous change in the fossil record.

Most of Gould's empirical research was based on the land snail genera Poecilozonites and Cerion. He also contributed to evolutionary developmental biology, and has received wide praise for his book Ontogeny and Phylogeny. In evolutionary theory he opposed strict selectionism, sociobiology as applied to humans, and evolutionary psychology. He campaigned against creationism and proposed that science and religion should be considered two distinct fields (or "magisteria") whose authorities do not overlap.

Gould was known by the general public mainly from his 300 popular essays in the magazine Natural History, and his books written for a non-specialist audience. In April 2000, the US Library of Congress named him a "Living Legend".




© 2013 MU-Peter Shimon




Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Punctuated! Economics?

or Models for the Tempo & Mode of Change in the Evolution of Business
Punctuated!
Economics?

"We believe that punctuational change
 dominates the history of life..."

Niles Eldredge & Stephen Jay Gould
Evolutionary & Revolutionary Disruptions:
How change usually occurs

The scientific paradigm shifts discussed  in
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, by Thomas Kuhn, were based on correlations with shifts in worldview within the society and cultures. These disruptive changes weakened old views, opening the ground for new scientific paradigms to emerge and be accepted. It is suggested that only then can these new theories generate a sustained flurry of new research for years to come. 

Perhaps Nikola Tesla was right when he said “The practical success of an idea, irrespective of its inherent merit, is dependent on the attitude of the contemporaries. If timely it is quickly adopted; if not, it is apt to fare like a sprout lured out of the ground by warm sunshine, only to be injured and retarded in its growth by the succeeding frost."

And perhaps Charles Darwin's sense of this contributed to his not publishing the Origin of Species until many years later. His comments on Vox populii seem to imply it as well (What Theories Need). 

Kuhn's paradigmatic shifts punctuate the history of scientific theories, although sometimes they also occur in small clusters. Kuhn's insights into these shifts happen can readily be applied to fields beyond the domain of science.

These shifts or changes seems to reflect a similar pattern in a theory of evolution explaining how speciation takes place. No, it is not strictly Darwinian. Darwin proposed a gradual change over time, something he seems to have embraced from Charles Lyell's geological processes. Although Thomas Huxley had warned him about the difficulties with it. Darwin, as others did, struggled with the lack of fossil evidence to support gradualism.

Years later what Niles Eldredge and Stephen Jay Gould proposed in a 1972 paper, were periods of stasis punctuated by rather drastic and rapid changes in species. It was an explanation for the patterns seen in the fossil record. The occurrence of speciation that is the grand parade of natural history is not strictly gradual and is aptly described by the musical term it resembles; a staccato. This theory came to be called Punctuated-Equilibria. Often called by the singular, equilibrium.

Business people often like to use nature as justifying metaphors such as, it's the law of nature, dog eat dog, and it's a jungle out there. All this seems to be based on rather old fashioned ideas of nature and outdated, misunderstood science. Ok, if your going to use nature as an analogy for business then at least do it with more accurate and updated science. Don't just imagine the way things are. Learn, and see it for what it really is.
Systems With Varying Levels Of Complexity

Ros Wilson's Punctuation Pyramid


Punctuation or Disruptions can occur at each level


In reality, ecosystems are not so 2 dimensional.

In fact, these systems can get very complicated.


Yet, there are ways to understand & manage them.



We owe our existence to punctuation or disruptions.
That is what made it possible for our kind to thrive.

Humans were not destined to evolve. We came about because of chance mutations allowing bipedalism. Walking upright was better adapted to the rapidly changing global environment...
from more woodland to more savannah.
But evidence shows, we had some luck on our side.

The Lucky Ape
Punctuated Equilibria & the BP Oil Spill

While this video may illustrate how speciation would occur with this theory, (that is, during disruptions to the equilibrium of the ecosystem) the morphologically different shrimp are not yet a different species if they are still successfully breeding with the eyed individuals.This case still is a good "micro" scale example. If those caustic conditions were to persist, the eyeless shrimp could become the only kind of shrimp in the area. In the new conditions, eyeless shrimp would totally replace the previous population (with eyes).Let's hope this is only temporary.

While refinements (sustaining innovations) in species occur during stasis or times of relative equilibrium, the really drastic transitions (disruptive innovations) come from major punctuations.

Note  each period marks a drastic change in type

Eldredge & Gould Explain Punctuated Equilibria 1991


A model for disruptive periods in economics?

A highly resolved phylogenetic Tree Of Life
Generated using iTOL: Interactive Tree Of Life
using completely sequenced genomes.
Punctuated Equilibria

Disruptions/Punctuation & Sustaining/Equilibria

The book Punctuated-Equilibrium (2007) by Stephen Jay Gould came out 35 years after the 1972 paper and 5 years after Gould's passing.

Here's a quote taken from the book jacket:

"What emerges strikingly from this book is that punctuated equilibrium represents a much broader paradigm about the nature of change -- a world view that may be judged as a distinctive and important movement within recent intellectual history. Indeed we may now be living within a punctuation, and our awareness of what this means may be the enduring legacy of one of America's best-loved scientists."

I see that Punctuated Equilibria in evolutionary history is robustly mirrored in the stable (sustaining innovations) and unstable (disruptive innovations) revolutions we see in economic history. If indeed we are in a disruptive phase and there seems little doubt of that on almost every level including economic, then insights may be gained and practical models designed to better manage these complex ecosystems. Ecology, the science of ecosystems, does just that.

So why should we adapt to an evolutionary economics? Well, because ecosystems are what economies are.The basic premise is things interact together organically, not mechanically. The other constant is; only change is permanent. The best approach to studying ecosystems is a system thinking approach. Evolutionary economics just happens to be such a science.

This kind of scientific approach to economics includes all the levels of interaction. Looking at the big picture, the web of inter-relations as an organic whole. The modeling for ecosystems provides a realistic view of the potential costs and profits. It would be better at predicting an optimum course of action. It suggests not necessarily moving toward the maximization in all cases but optimization of profits over a larger time and geographic scale. So, if it could be more accurate a predictor and also more profitable to us, why shouldn't it be used in economics?

In future posts will flesh out just what I mean.
Niles Eldredge 2012
Be warned. You have to be a bit hardcore to sit through this.
But, if you want a background and personal history of the theory, This talk is a must watch.
© 2012 MU-Peter Shimon